Two years into his presidency, President Bola Tinubu delivered an optimistic second-anniversary speech, celebrating his administration’s efforts to steer the nation away from economic ruin and social decay. Addressing Nigerians on May 29, 2025, Tinubu highlighted bold economic reforms, security gains, and human capital investments as hallmarks of his Renewed Hope Agenda. Yet, while some progress is evident, the reality on the ground paints a more complex picture of achievements tempered by persistent challenges.
Economic reforms: Stabilization at a cost
Tinubu’s flagship economic policies—the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of foreign exchange rates—were framed as painful but necessary to avert fiscal collapse. He boasted of tangible results: a fiscal deficit reduced from 5.4% of GDP in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024, revenue generation exceeding N6 trillion in Q1 2025, and foreign reserves soaring from $4 billion to over $23 billion by late 2024. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), freed from subsidy burdens, now contributes to the Federation Account, while tax reforms have lifted the tax-to-GDP ratio from 10% to 13.5%. Real GDP growth reached 3.4% in 2024, with inflation reportedly easing.
the cost of living remains a sore point. Nigerians continue to grapple with high food prices and unemployment
These figures suggest a degree of macroeconomic stabilization, a feat Tinubu proudly attributes to his administration’s resolve. However, the cost of living remains a sore point. Nigerians continue to grapple with high food prices and unemployment. The African Development Bank’s projection of a GDP slowdown to 3.2% in 2025, below the African average, hints at vulnerabilities—global trade disruptions and reduced export demand—that Tinubu’s speech glossed over. For many, the promised prosperity feels distant, raising questions about the inclusivity of his economic vision.
Security: Progress amid persistent threats
On security, Tinubu claimed significant strides, asserting that over 300 Boko Haram and bandit commanders have been neutralized, enabling farmers to return to their fields and highways to become safer. Enhanced collaboration among security agencies and improved welfare for armed forces were cited as drivers of this success. Yet, northern Nigeria remains plagued by violence, with banditry and insurgency disrupting lives and livelihoods. While the administration’s efforts deserve credit, the gap between Tinubu’s narrative of restored order and the ongoing reality of insecurity suggests that the war is far from won.
For many, the promised prosperity feels distant, raising questions about the inclusivity of Mr. President’s economic vision
Social initiatives: Steps forward, miles to go
Tinubu emphasized human capital development, spotlighting initiatives like the student loan scheme, the revitalization of over 1,000 primary health centers, and youth empowerment programs through NASENI. These efforts signal intent, but their impact remains nascent. Expanding health insurance coverage from 16 million to 20 million is a step forward, yet systemic issues—poverty, inequality, and unemployment—persist, casting doubt on the depth of these reforms.
the gap between Tinubu’s narrative of restored order and the ongoing reality of insecurity suggests that the war is far from won
Conclusion: A halfway mark of hope and hardship
Tinubu’s speech radiates confidence, but his administration’s record is one of partial victories. Fiscal gains and infrastructure strides coexist with economic hardship and security woes. Halfway through his term, the president’s vision of a “greater, more economically stable nation” hinges on translating reforms into tangible relief for Nigerians.
For now, resilience—not renewal—defines the national mood.
